San Esteban de Nogales: U.P.L. would win a majority
San Esteban de Nogales (León, 251 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 57%U.P.L. majority
- 209valid votes in 2023 (86% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 14% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About San Esteban de Nogales
San Esteban de Nogales is a municipality in the province of León with 251 inhabitants, the 170th largest of its 211 municipalities. Its council has 7 seats, and 4 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 U.P.L. came first with 45% of the vote and 3 seats; PP was second with 3. 86% of the 243 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps U.P.L. on 4 seats, a majority, which it holds in 57% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- U.P.L.Local lists 45.0% → 47.6% 3 → 4 councillors
- PPPP 42.1% → 42.1% 3 → 3 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 12.4% → 9.8% 1 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 209 valid votes including 1 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.