San Esteban de Nogales: U.P.L. would win a majority
San Esteban de Nogales (León, 251 inhabitants) elects 7 councillors on 23 May 2027; 4 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 7councillors, 4 for a majority
- 57%U.P.L. majority
- 209valid votes in 2023 (86% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
U.P.L.+1
4
councillors (2023: 3) · 47.6% of the vote (2023: 45.0%)
Majority 57%
PP±0
3
councillors (2023: 3) · 42.1% of the vote (2023: 42.1%)
Majority 29%
PSOE−1
0
councillors (2023: 1) · 9.8% of the vote (2023: 12.4%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (4 of 7). No list with a majority in 14% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- U.P.L.Local lists 45.0% → 47.6% 3 → 4 councillors
- PPPP 42.1% → 42.1% 3 → 3 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 12.4% → 9.8% 1 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 209 valid votes including 1 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.