España Próximas elecciones29 nov 2026en 27 días PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendario Historial Investigación

Sabero: U.P.L. would win a majority

Sabero (León, 1,088 inhabitants) elects 9 councillors on 23 May 2027; 5 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

U.P.L.+1
5 councillors (2023: 4) · 47.5% of the vote (2023: 44.9%) Majority 49%
PP±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 43.2% of the vote (2023: 43.2%) Majority 25%
PSOE−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.0% of the vote (2023: 11.7%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (5 of 9). No list with a majority in 25% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Sabero

Sabero is a municipality in the province of León with 1,088 inhabitants, the 55th largest of its 211 municipalities. Its council has 9 seats, and 5 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 U.P.L. came first with 44.9% of the vote and 4 seats; PP was second with 4. 79.5% of the 981 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps U.P.L. on 5 seats, a majority, which it holds in 49% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. U.P.L.Local lists 44.9% → 47.5% 4 → 5 councillors
  2. PPPP 43.2% → 43.2% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 11.7% → 9.0% 1 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 780 valid votes including 2 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Sabero in size, in León

Every municipality in León → · All of Spain →