La Guardia de Jaén: PP would keep its majority
La Guardia de Jaén (Jaén, 5,151 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 87%PP majority
- 2,813valid votes in 2023 (69% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
PP±0
8
councillors (2023: 8) · 53.3% of the vote (2023: 54.6%)
Majority 87%
PSOE−1
4
councillors (2023: 5) · 28.4% of the vote (2023: 32.3%)
Majority 0%
VOX+1
1
councillors (2023: 0) · 11.3% of the vote (2023: 6.2%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 13% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 54.6% → 53.3% 8 → 8 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 32.3% → 28.4% 5 → 4 councillors
- VOXVox 6.2% → 11.3% 0 → 1 councillors
- JM+Local lists 5.6% → 5.8% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,813 valid votes including 36 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.