Es Castell: PP would keep its majority
Es Castell (Illes Balears, 7,525 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 66%PP majority
- 3,426valid votes in 2023 (59% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 34% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Es Castell
Es Castell is a municipality in the province of Illes Balears with 7,525 inhabitants, the 30th largest of its 67 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PP came first with 46.7% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 3. 58.6% of the 5,851 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 66% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 46.7% → 47.4% 7 → 7 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 24.4% → 21.8% 3 → 3 councillors
- SOM ES CASTELLLocal lists 17.6% → 18.8% 2 → 2 councillors
- IPECLocal lists 8.1% → 8.7% 1 → 1 councillors
- PERXBLocal lists 1.9% → 2.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,426 valid votes including 45 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.