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L'Hospitalet de Llobregat: no list would have a majority, PSC-CP largest

L'Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona, 265,444 inhabitants) elects 27 councillors on 23 May 2027; 14 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSC-CP−1
12 councillors (2023: 13) · 33.7% of the vote (2023: 38.4%) Majority 9%
VOX+2
5 councillors (2023: 3) · 16.4% of the vote (2023: 10.3%) Majority 0%
ERC-EUIA-AM+1
5 councillors (2023: 4) · 16.0% of the vote (2023: 12.8%) Majority 0%
PP−1
3 councillors (2023: 4) · 10.7% of the vote (2023: 12.0%) Majority 0%
LHECP - C−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 6.9% of the vote (2023: 9.8%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (14 of 27). No list with a majority in 91% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSC-CPPSOE 38.4% → 33.7% 13 → 12 councillors
  2. VOXVox 10.3% → 16.4% 3 → 5 councillors
  3. ERC-EUIA-AMERC 12.8% → 16.0% 4 → 5 councillors
  4. PPPP 12.0% → 10.7% 4 → 3 councillors
  5. LHECP - CSumar, Podemos and allies 9.8% → 6.9% 3 → 2 councillors
  6. CMJunts 3.7% → 3.3% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. CSCiudadanos 2.4% → 2.4% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. CUP-AMUNTCUP 2.3% → 2.3% 0 → 0 councillors
  9. V..L'HLocal lists 2.1% → 2.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  10. VALENTSLocal lists 1.5% → 1.5% 0 → 0 councillors
  11. AEL'HLocal lists 1.0% → 1.0% 0 → 0 councillors
  12. DECIDEIX L'HLocal lists 0.6% → 0.6% 0 → 0 councillors
  13. UEPLocal lists 0.4% → 0.4% 0 → 0 councillors
  14. RECORTES CEROLocal lists 0.4% → 0.4% 0 → 0 councillors
  15. ARA PLLocal lists 0.3% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors
  16. PROPONEMOS XMLocal lists 0.2% → 0.2% 0 → 0 councillors
  17. PTDEFRVLocal lists 0.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 82,681 valid votes including 1,290 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

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