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Calella: no list would have a majority, CM largest

Calella (Barcelona, 19,363 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

CM−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 26.4% of the vote (2023: 29.4%) Majority 0%
ERC - AM+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 21.1% of the vote (2023: 16.6%) Majority 0%
EC - ARA PL±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 13.3% of the vote (2023: 12.9%) Majority 0%
PSC-CP−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 12.0% of the vote (2023: 15.0%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 8.3% of the vote (2023: 3.8%) Majority 0%
CUP-AMUNT±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.3% of the vote (2023: 6.1%) Majority 0%
PP±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 6.0% of the vote (2023: 7.0%) Majority 0%
CECP - C±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.0% of the vote (2023: 7.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. CMJunts 29.4% → 26.4% 6 → 5 councillors
  2. ERC - AMERC 16.6% → 21.1% 3 → 4 councillors
  3. EC - ARA PLLocal lists 12.9% → 13.3% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. PSC-CPPSOE 15.0% → 12.0% 3 → 2 councillors
  5. VOXVox 3.8% → 8.3% 0 → 1 councillors
  6. CUP-AMUNTCUP 6.1% → 6.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  7. PPPP 7.0% → 6.0% 1 → 1 councillors
  8. CECP - CSumar, Podemos and allies 7.6% → 5.0% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,942 valid votes including 114 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Calella in size, in Barcelona

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