Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Spain · Seats changing hands

45 seats change hands since 2023, Vox up 34

Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2023, where a constituency's seats are shared out, the seats that move between parties. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.

Who takes seats from whom

  1. Voxfrom Sumar 18 seats
  2. Voxfrom PSOE 8 seats
  3. Voxfrom PP 8 seats
  4. PPfrom Sumar 3 seats
  5. PSOEfrom Sumar 2 seats
  6. ERCfrom PSOE 1 seat
  7. Podemosfrom PSOE 1 seat
  8. EH Bildufrom PNV 1 seat
  9. PPfrom Junts 1 seat
  10. Podemosfrom PP 1 seat
  11. BNGfrom PSOE 1 seat

Every seat

  1. A CoruñaGalicia PP from Sumar
  2. AlbaceteCastilla-La Mancha Vox from PSOE
  3. Alicante/AlacantComunitat Valenciana Vox from Sumar
  4. AlmeríaAndalucía Vox from PSOE
  5. AsturiasAsturias PSOE from Sumar
  6. ÁvilaCastilla y León Vox from PP
  7. BarcelonaCatalunya ERC from PSOE
  8. BarcelonaCatalunya Podemos from PSOE
  9. BarcelonaCatalunya Vox from Sumar (2 seats)
  10. BizkaiaPaís Vasco PSOE from Sumar
  11. BurgosCastilla y León Vox from PSOE
  12. CáceresExtremadura Vox from PSOE
  13. CádizAndalucía Vox from Sumar
  14. CórdobaAndalucía PP from Sumar
  15. CuencaCastilla-La Mancha Vox from PP
  16. GipuzkoaPaís Vasco EH Bildu from PNV
  17. GironaCatalunya PP from Junts
  18. GironaCatalunya Vox from Sumar
  19. GranadaAndalucía Vox from Sumar
  20. HuescaAragón Vox from PP
  21. Illes BalearsIlles Balears Vox from Sumar
  22. Las PalmasCanarias Vox from Sumar
  23. LeónCastilla y León Vox from PSOE
  24. MadridMadrid Podemos from PP
  25. MadridMadrid Vox from PSOE
  26. MadridMadrid Vox from Sumar (3 seats)
  27. MálagaAndalucía Vox from Sumar
  28. MurciaMurcia Vox from PSOE
  29. MurciaMurcia Vox from Sumar
  30. PalenciaCastilla y León Vox from PP
  31. PontevedraGalicia BNG from PSOE
  32. PontevedraGalicia PP from Sumar
  33. SalamancaCastilla y León Vox from PP
  34. SegoviaCastilla y León Vox from PP
  35. SevillaAndalucía Vox from PSOE
  36. SevillaAndalucía Vox from Sumar
  37. TarragonaCatalunya Vox from Sumar
  38. TeruelAragón Vox from PP
  39. ToledoCastilla-La Mancha Vox from PP
  40. Valencia/ValènciaComunitat Valenciana Vox from Sumar (2 seats)
  41. ZaragozaAragón Vox from Sumar

Within a constituency, each seat a party loses is paired with one another party gains; where several parties move at once the pairing is one of several equally fair ones, but each party's net change is exact.

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