Germany · pollsters

Which pollsters to trust in Germany

Every pollster that has polled Germany, rated on how close its final polls came to the result and how openly it publishes; 19 polls there in the last 30 days.

Scored the same way as our British ratings, out of 100. Final Bundestag polls since 2005 count towards accuracy; state elections are shown separately. Each pollster is ranked against Germany's final polls, and one with little record is pulled towards a typical one, so grades show how a pollster compares with its rivals here and can't be compared across countries. State elections →

Pollster	Grade	Score	Accuracy /50	Lead /20	Openness /30	Elections	Polls now
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	B	62	30	11	21	7	31
YouGov Deutschland	B	61	27	13	21	3	20
Verian	C	59	21	9	30	6	21
Forsa	C	57	32	13	12	6	85
Ipsos Deutschland	C	53	33	12	8	2	20
INSA	C	52	32	12	8	4	170
Infratest dimap	C	46	24	7	15	7	20
Allensbach	D	44	28	9	7	7	21
pollytix	D provisional	37	25	12	0	1	10
GMS	E	28	19	9	0	6	11

Past pollsters

A final-poll record, but no polls in the last year

Pollster	Grade	Score	Accuracy /50	Lead /20	Openness /30	Elections	Polls now
Civey not polling now	A provisional	77	33	14	30	1	0
INFO GmbH not polling now	B provisional	66	27	9	30	1	0
Wahlkreisprognose not polling now	C	50	37	13	0	2	1
Cluster 17 not polling now	D provisional	43	30	13	0	1	0
Trend Research not polling now	D	39	28	11	0	2	0
Democracy Institute not polling now	E provisional	23	16	7	0	1	0

At past elections

The average miss of its final polls, by party, in points: positive means it had the party too high.

	Elections	SPD	CDU/CSU	Greens	AfD	Linke	FDP
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7	+0.6	+0.9	+0.1	−0.6	−0.6	−1.1
Infratest dimap	7	+0.3	+1.2	+0.1	+0.1	−0.9	−0.9
Allensbach	7	−0.1	+1.6	−0.1	−1.3	−0.2	−0.4
Verian	6	−0.1	+0.5	+0.1	−0.6	−1.1	−1.2
Forsa	6	+0.5	−0.2	+0.2	−0.6	0.0	−0.2
GMS	6	−0.1	+2.2	+0.7	−0.9	−1.0	−1.1
INSA	4	+0.2	−0.9	−0.1	+0.4	+0.3	−0.6
YouGov Deutschland	3	+0.4	+0.2	−0.4	−0.6	0.0	−1.1
Ipsos Deutschland	2	−0.1	−0.3	+0.8	+0.4	−1.8	+0.5
Wahlkreisprognose	2	−1.1	−0.3	−0.2	+0.2	−0.8	+0.5
Trend Research	2	+1.4	+0.5	−0.8	−0.5	+0.8	−0.6
Civey	1	−0.7	−1.1	+1.2	−0.3	–	+0.5
INFO GmbH	1	+4.0	+0.2	−0.7	–	+0.1	−2.6
Cluster 17	1	−1.4	+1.5	+1.4	+0.2	−1.8	–
pollytix	1	+0.6	+0.5	+2.4	−1.8	−2.8	–
Democracy Institute	1	−1.4	−1.5	+1.4	+4.2	−3.8	–

Now

Its latest poll minus our average, in points. A lean is not an error: nobody knows yet who is right.

	AfD	CDU/CSU	SPD	Greens	Linke	FDP	BSW
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	−4.6	+5.4	+0.4	−1.9	+0.4	−1.0	–
YouGov Deutschland	+0.4	−2.6	+0.4	+1.1	−0.6	+1.0	−0.2
Verian	+0.4	−0.6	−0.6	+1.1	+0.4	−1.0	−0.2
Forsa	−0.6	+0.4	−0.6	+1.1	+0.4	0.0	–
INSA	+1.4	−0.6	+0.4	+0.1	−0.6	+1.0	−0.2
Allensbach	−0.6	+2.4	+0.4	−0.9	+0.4	0.0	–
pollytix	+1.4	−2.6	+1.4	−0.9	+0.4	+1.0	+0.8
GMS	+2.4	−1.6	−1.6	+0.1	−0.6	−1.0	−0.2

Which way each pollster leans

Each of the 410 polls since the last election is set against the other pollsters' polls of the same fortnight. A pollster that keeps putting a party above everyone else has a house effect. It is not a mistake in itself: the result decides who was right. Our average does not adjust for these; it takes each pollster's latest poll with equal weight.

Pollster	Polls	AfD	CDU/CSU	Greens	SPD	Linke	Others	FDP	Scatter v sampling
INSA-Consulere Feb 2025 – Oct 2026	170	+0.8	−0.6	−0.8	+0.3	−0.1	−0.7	−0.1	0.78
forsa Gesellschaft für Sozialforschung und statistische Analysen Mar 2025 – Oct 2026	85	+0.2	−0.7	+0.7	−0.9	+0.6	+0.9	−0.2	0.98
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Mar 2025 – Oct 2026	31	−0.3	+0.9	−0.1	−0.2	+0.2	+2.6	−0.4	1.16
Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach (IfD) Mar 2025 – Oct 2026	21	−0.7	+1.6	−0.5	+0.5	−0.5	+0.2	+0.4	0.68
Verian (formerly Kantar Public / TNS Emnid / Emnid) Mar 2025 – Oct 2026	21	−0.4	−0.1	+0.6	+0.1	+0.1	−0.4	−0.3	0.67
infratest dimap Mar 2025 – Sep 2026	20	−0.3	+0.8	+0.3	−0.5	−0.5	+0.6	−0.2	0.86
YouGov Deutschland Mar 2025 – Oct 2026	20	+0.7	−0.5	0.0	−0.2	−0.4	−1.0	+0.2	0.94
Ipsos Deutschland Mar 2025 – Oct 2026	19	−0.4	−1.2	+0.2	+0.8	+0.9	−1.5	+0.3	1.80
GMS Dr. Jung Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung Apr 2025 – Oct 2026	11	+0.4	−0.1	0.0	−0.5	−0.4	−0.1	0.0	1.01
pollytix strategic research May 2025 – Oct 2026	10	+0.2	−0.3	−0.7	+0.9	−0.1	−1.6	+0.4	0.89
Wahlkreisprognose Apr 2025 – Apr 2025	1	+0.1	0.0	+0.1	+0.3	+0.2	−0.6	+0.1	–

Cells: points above (+) or below (−) the other pollsters of the same fortnight, shrunk toward zero for pollsters with few polls. Bold: more than two standard errors from zero. Hover for the raw figure.

Herding: too close to everyone else?

A poll of 1,000 people should land a point or two from the truth by chance alone, so honest polls scatter. The last column compares each pollster's scatter around the others (its lean removed) with what its sample sizes imply. About 1 is normal. Well below 1 means its polls sit closer to the pack than chance allows, which can mean adjusting toward other polls; well above 1 means more noise than its sample explains.

No pollster with eight or more polls is below 0.5.

Noisier than their samples explain (above 1.6): Ipsos Deutschland

Caveats: a pollster that polls rarely has few others in its fortnight; small parties' scatter is small anyway; a missing sample size counts as 1,000; online panels with heavy weighting can be steadier without copying anyone. This is a flag for a closer look, not a verdict.

Which pollsters to trust in Germany

Past pollsters

At past elections

Now

Which way each pollster leans

Herding: too close to everyone else?

How the score works

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