Netherlands General election15 May 2030in 1,291 days PRO largest party 88% D66 + VVD + CDA reach 76 0% Calendar Track record Research
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Netherlands · changelog

What moved in the forecast, day by day

Every day our Netherlands forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.

  1. 28 OctWednesday
    • PVV: 20 seats (−1)
    • FvD: 13 seats (+1)
  2. 27 OctTuesday
    • PVV: 21 seats (+1)
    • JA21: 18 seats (−1)
    • VVD: 15 seats (+1)
    • CDA: 13 seats (+1)
    • PvdD: 5 seats (−1)
    • DENK: 2 seats (−1)
    • PVV: 13.3% of the vote (+0.6)
    • JA21: 12.1% of the vote (−0.7)
    • VVD: 9.7% of the vote (+0.6)
    • CDA: 8.3% of the vote (+0.5)
    • DENK: 1.6% of the vote (−0.4)
  3. 25 OctSunday
    • PRO: 28 seats (+1)
    • JA21: 19 seats (+1)
    • D66: 16 seats (−1)
    • VVD: 14 seats (−1)
    • CDA: 12 seats (−1)
    • PvdD: 6 seats (+1)
    • PRO: 18.2% of the vote (+0.7)
    • JA21: 12.7% of the vote (+1.0)
    • D66: 10.8% of the vote (−0.7)
    • VVD: 9.2% of the vote (−0.9)
    • CDA: 7.8% of the vote (−0.7)
    • PvdD: 3.8% of the vote (+0.5)
  4. 16 OctFriday
    • PVV: 20 seats (−1)
    • D66: 17 seats (−1)
    • PvdD: 5 seats (+1)
    • SP: 4 seats (+1)
    • D66: 11.5% of the vote (−0.5)
    • PvdD: 3.3% of the vote (+0.5)
  5. 7 OctWednesday
    • PRO: 27 seats (+1)
    • PVV: 21 seats (+2)
    • JA21: 18 seats (+2)
    • VVD: 15 seats (−2)
    • FvD: 12 seats (−2)
    • SP: 3 seats (−1)
    • PRO: 17.6% of the vote (+0.7)
    • PVV: 13.3% of the vote (+1.0)
    • JA21: 11.5% of the vote (+1.3)
    • VVD: 10.0% of the vote (−1.3)
    • FvD: 8.1% of the vote (−1.3)
  6. 1 OctThursday
    • PRO: 26 seats (+1)
    • PVV: 19 seats (+1)
    • D66: 18 seats (−1)
    • VVD: 17 seats (−2)
    • JA21: 16 seats (+1)
    • FvD: 14 seats (−1)
    • CDA: 13 seats (−1)
    • 50PLUS: 5 seats (+1)
    • DENK: 3 seats (+1)
    • PRO: 16.9% of the vote (+0.8)
    • PVV: 12.3% of the vote (+0.9)
    • D66: 12.0% of the vote (−0.5)
    • VVD: 11.3% of the vote (−0.9)
    • JA21: 10.2% of the vote (+0.4)
    • CDA: 8.6% of the vote (−0.5)
  7. 13 SepSunday · rebuilt
    • PVV: 11.4% of the vote (−0.4)
  8. 2 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • VVD: 19 seats (+1)
    • JA21: 15 seats (−1)
    • FVD: 15 seats (−1)
    • SP: 4 seats (+1)
    • DENK: 2 seats (−1)
    • BBB: 2 seats (+1)
    • D66: 12.5% of the vote (+0.5)
    • FVD: 9.6% of the vote (−0.7)
  9. 30 AugSunday · rebuilt
    • PRO: 25 seats (+1)
    • D66: 19 seats (+1)
    • VVD: 18 seats (−2)
    • PVV: 18 seats (+1)
    • JA21: 16 seats (+2)
    • CDA: 14 seats (−1)
    • FVD: 16 seats (+2)
    • SP: 3 seats (−1)
    • 50PLUS: 4 seats (−1)
    • SGP: 3 seats (−1)
    • BBB: 1 seats (−1)
    • VVD: 11.8% of the vote (−0.9)
    • PVV: 11.9% of the vote (+0.6)
    • JA21: 10.3% of the vote (+1.1)
    • CDA: 9.4% of the vote (−0.7)
    • FVD: 10.3% of the vote (+1.3)
  10. 24 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • PRO: 24 seats (+1)
    • D66: 18 seats (−4)
    • VVD: 20 seats (+2)
    • PVV: 17 seats (−2)
    • JA21: 14 seats (−3)
    • CDA: 15 seats (+2)
    • FVD: 14 seats (−2)
    • SP: 4 seats (+1)
    • 50PLUS: 5 seats (+1)
    • SGP: 4 seats (+1)
    • CU: 3 seats (+1)
    • VOLT: 3 seats (+1)
    • BBB: 2 seats (+1)
    • PRO: 15.6% of the vote (+0.9)
    • D66: 11.7% of the vote (−2.2)
    • VVD: 12.7% of the vote (+0.8)
    • PVV: 11.3% of the vote (−0.9)
    • JA21: 9.2% of the vote (−1.8)
    • CDA: 10.0% of the vote (+1.3)
    • FVD: 9.1% of the vote (−1.2)
    • SP: 2.8% of the vote (+0.7)
    • 50PLUS: 3.4% of the vote (+0.4)
    • SGP: 2.8% of the vote (+0.5)
    • CU: 2.4% of the vote (+0.6)
    • VOLT: 2.4% of the vote (+0.9)
    • BBB: 1.6% of the vote (+0.5)