New electoral law Our forecast now uses Italy's new electoral law, approved on 8 October 2026: no single-member seats, and 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators for a coalition that comes first with 42% of the vote. The maps show which coalition leads in each former collegio; those are no longer seats. What changed →
Italy · changelog
What moved in the forecast, day by day
Every day our Italy forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.
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30 OctFriday
- Centre-left: 223 seats (+1)
- Centre-right: 143 seats (−1)
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29 OctThursday
- Centre-right: 144 seats (+1)
- FN: 24 seats (−1)
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26 OctMonday
- Centre-left: 222 seats (−1)
- Centre-right: 143 seats (+1)
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22 OctThursday
- Centre-left: 223 seats (+1)
- FN: 25 seats (−1)
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20 OctTuesday
- Centre-right: 142 seats (−1)
- FN: 26 seats (+1)
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19 OctMonday
- Centre-left majority: 60% chance, down 4 pts
- Centre-right majority: 40% chance, up 4 pts
- Centre-right: 143 seats (+3)
- FN: 25 seats (−2)
- Azione: 10 seats (−1)
- Centre-right: 41.5% of the vote (+0.6)
- FN: 6.9% of the vote (−0.5)
- FdI: 27.6% of the vote (+0.4)
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16 OctFriday
- Centre-left: 222 seats (−1)
- Azione: 11 seats (+1)
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12 OctMonday
- Centre-right: 140 seats (+1)
- Azione: 10 seats (−1)
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9 OctFriday
- Centre-left majority: 67% chance, up 7 pts
- Centre-right majority: 33% chance, up 18 pts
- Centre-left: 223 seats (+15)
- Centre-right: 139 seats (−22)
- FN: 27 seats (+8)
- Azione: 11 seats (+3)
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8 OctThursday
- Centre-right: 161 seats (+1)
- FN: 19 seats (−1)
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7 OctWednesday
- Centre-right: 160 seats (−1)
- FN: 20 seats (+1)
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6 OctTuesday
- Centre-left majority: 59% chance, down 3 pts
- Centre-left: 208 seats (−4)
- Centre-right: 161 seats (−3)
- FN: 19 seats (−1)
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29 SepTuesday
- Centre-left: 212 seats (−12)
- Centre-right: 164 seats (+25)
- FN: 20 seats (−7)
- PD: 20.9% of the vote (+1.4)
- M5S: 12.7% of the vote (−2.6)
- AVS: 6.5% of the vote (+0.6)
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28 SepMonday · rebuilt
- CDX: 139 seats (+1)
- FN: 27 seats (−1)
- list: 26 seats (+1)
- list: 101 seats (−1)
- list: 31 seats (+1)
- list: 27 seats (−1)
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24 SepThursday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 30% chance, up 16 pts
- CSX majority: 70% chance, up 8 pts
- CDX: 138 seats (−26)
- CSX: 224 seats (+12)
- FN: 28 seats (+8)
- list: 90 seats (−17)
- list: 25 seats (−6)
- list: 19 seats (−4)
- list: 4 seats (+3)
- list: 102 seats (+5)
- list: 80 seats (+7)
- list: 30 seats (+1)
- list: 12 seats (+7)
- list: 28 seats (+8)
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23 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 15% chance, down 17 pts
- CSX majority: 62% chance, down 6 pts
- CDX: 164 seats (+25)
- CSX: 212 seats (−12)
- FN: 20 seats (−7)
- list: 107 seats (+17)
- list: 31 seats (+5)
- list: 23 seats (+4)
- list: 97 seats (−6)
- list: 73 seats (−5)
- list: 29 seats (−2)
- list: 20 seats (−7)
- list: 5 seats (−7)
- list: 1 seats (−3)
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21 SepMonday · rebuilt
- list: 103 seats (−1)
- list: 31 seats (+1)
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20 SepSunday · rebuilt
- list: 78 seats (+1)
- list: 30 seats (−1)
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17 SepThursday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 30% chance, up 17 pts
- CSX majority: 70% chance, up 6 pts
- CDX: 139 seats (−24)
- CSX: 224 seats (+11)
- FN: 27 seats (+7)
- list: 90 seats (−17)
- list: 26 seats (−4)
- list: 19 seats (−4)
- list: 4 seats (+3)
- list: 104 seats (+6)
- list: 77 seats (+4)
- list: 31 seats (+2)
- list: 12 seats (+7)
- list: 27 seats (+7)
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16 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 14% chance, down 16 pts
- CSX majority: 64% chance, down 6 pts
- CDX: 163 seats (+24)
- CSX: 213 seats (−11)
- FN: 20 seats (−7)
- list: 107 seats (+17)
- list: 30 seats (+4)
- list: 23 seats (+4)
- list: 98 seats (−6)
- list: 73 seats (−4)
- list: 29 seats (−2)
- list: 20 seats (−7)
- list: 5 seats (−7)
- list: 1 seats (−3)
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15 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- CDX: 139 seats (−1)
- FN: 27 seats (+1)
- list: 90 seats (−1)
- list: 27 seats (+1)
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14 SepMonday · rebuilt
- list: 91 seats (+1)
- list: 19 seats (−1)
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10 SepThursday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 31% chance, up 16 pts
- CSX majority: 69% chance, up 8 pts
- CDX: 140 seats (−25)
- CSX: 224 seats (+12)
- FN: 26 seats (+7)
- list: 90 seats (−17)
- list: 26 seats (−4)
- list: 20 seats (−4)
- list: 4 seats (+2)
- list: 104 seats (+6)
- list: 77 seats (+5)
- list: 31 seats (+2)
- list: 12 seats (+7)
- list: 26 seats (+7)
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9 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 16% chance, down 17 pts
- CSX majority: 61% chance, down 6 pts
- CDX: 165 seats (+25)
- CSX: 212 seats (−12)
- FN: 19 seats (−7)
- list: 107 seats (+17)
- list: 30 seats (+4)
- list: 24 seats (+4)
- list: 98 seats (−6)
- list: 72 seats (−5)
- list: 29 seats (−2)
- list: 19 seats (−7)
- list: 5 seats (−7)
- list: 2 seats (−2)
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4 SepFriday · rebuilt
- CDX: 140 seats (−9)
- FN: 26 seats (−1)
- list: 90 seats (−5)
- list: 26 seats (−1)
- list: 20 seats (−2)
- list: 4 seats (−1)
- list: 104 seats (+1)
- list: 77 seats (−1)
- list: 26 seats (−1)
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3 SepThursday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 32% chance, up 16 pts
- CSX majority: 68% chance, up 5 pts
- CDX: 149 seats (−15)
- CSX: 224 seats (+11)
- FN: 27 seats (+8)
- list: 95 seats (−11)
- list: 27 seats (−3)
- list: 22 seats (−2)
- list: 5 seats (+3)
- list: 103 seats (+5)
- list: 78 seats (+5)
- list: 31 seats (+2)
- list: 12 seats (+7)
- list: 27 seats (+8)
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2 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 16% chance, down 16 pts
- CSX majority: 63% chance, down 5 pts
- CDX: 164 seats (+15)
- CSX: 213 seats (−11)
- FN: 19 seats (−8)
- list: 106 seats (+11)
- list: 30 seats (+3)
- list: 24 seats (+2)
- list: 98 seats (−5)
- list: 73 seats (−5)
- list: 29 seats (−2)
- list: 19 seats (−8)
- list: 5 seats (−7)
- list: 2 seats (−3)
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1 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- list: 95 seats (−2)
- list: 22 seats (+1)
- list: 5 seats (+1)
- list: 78 seats (+1)
- list: 31 seats (−1)
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28 AugFriday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 31% chance, up 5 pts
- CSX majority: 69% chance, down 5 pts
- CDX: 149 seats (+2)
- FN: 27 seats (−2)
- list: 97 seats (+1)
- list: 21 seats (+1)
- list: 77 seats (+1)
- list: 32 seats (−1)
- list: 27 seats (−2)
- FDI: 26.1% of the vote (+0.6)
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27 AugThursday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 26% chance, up 14 pts
- CSX majority: 74% chance, up 6 pts
- CDX: 147 seats (−10)
- CSX: 224 seats (+5)
- FN: 29 seats (+9)
- list: 96 seats (−6)
- list: 27 seats (−3)
- list: 20 seats (−2)
- list: 4 seats (+3)
- list: 103 seats (+3)
- list: 76 seats (+2)
- list: 12 seats (+7)
- list: 29 seats (+9)
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26 AugWednesday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 12% chance, down 20 pts
- CDX: 157 seats (+16)
- CSX: 219 seats (−5)
- FN: 20 seats (−5)
- list: 102 seats (+11)
- list: 30 seats (+4)
- list: 22 seats (+2)
- list: 100 seats (−3)
- list: 74 seats (−5)
- list: 33 seats (+3)
- list: 20 seats (−5)
- list: 5 seats (−7)
- list: 1 seats (−3)
- FDI: 25.5% of the vote (−1.0)
- M5S: 14.7% of the vote (−0.5)
- LEGA: 5.4% of the vote (−0.4)
- FN: 7.5% of the vote (+0.6)
- AVS: 6.4% of the vote (+0.5)
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20 AugThursday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 32% chance, up 17 pts
- CSX majority: 68% chance, up 6 pts
- CDX: 141 seats (−24)
- CSX: 224 seats (+11)
- FN: 25 seats (+7)
- list: 91 seats (−16)
- list: 26 seats (−5)
- list: 20 seats (−4)
- list: 4 seats (+3)
- list: 103 seats (+6)
- list: 79 seats (+5)
- list: 30 seats (+1)
- list: 12 seats (+7)
- list: 25 seats (+7)
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19 AugWednesday · rebuilt
- CDX majority: 16% chance, down 17 pts
- CSX majority: 62% chance, down 6 pts
- CDX: 165 seats (+24)
- CSX: 213 seats (−11)
- FN: 18 seats (−7)
- list: 107 seats (+16)
- list: 31 seats (+5)
- list: 24 seats (+4)
- list: 97 seats (−6)
- list: 74 seats (−5)
- list: 29 seats (−1)
- list: 18 seats (−7)
- list: 5 seats (−7)
- list: 1 seats (−3)