Le Pen reaches 37 per cent in Ifop, and our forecast gives her a 93 per cent chance
Eight polls in October put Marine Le Pen between 32 and 37 per cent in the first round. Second place is still open between Mélenchon and Philippe.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Ifop's poll of 29 October put Marine Le Pen on 37 per cent in the first round of the 2027 presidential election, her highest score in its series. Jean-Luc Mélenchon was second on 17.5, Édouard Philippe 15, Raphaël Glucksmann 11.5 and Bruno Retailleau 7.
The other October polls put her lower but well clear: 32 to 36 per cent at Cluster17, OpinionWay, Ipsos, Harris Interactive, Elabe, YouGov and Odoxa. In our average she is on 34.4, 17.5 points ahead of Mélenchon.
Ifop's previous wave, taken just after the urban violence of 17 and 18 October, had found the same rise. Its second-round figures had her beating every opponent: 56 to 44 against Philippe, 57 to 43 against Glucksmann and 68 to 32 against Mélenchon.
Our forecast
Le Pen wins in 93 per cent of our simulations. The likeliest run-off is Le Pen against Mélenchon, and on our numbers she wins it 66 to 34. The polls as published give 68 to 33. The difference is our correction: second-round polls have overstated the National Rally at every run-off it has reached.
The race for second
Mélenchon, Philippe and Glucksmann are within a few points of each other. Philippe has lost most over the past three months, 4.6 points since July. Glucksmann won the social democratic primary in October in the first round, with about two-thirds of the vote, and is now its candidate.
Le Pen can stand. The Paris Court of Appeal convicted her on 7 July but the ineligibility it imposed had already run out; she has appealed again to the Cour de cassation.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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