Three weeks out, the PP and Vox hold 199 seats in our projection
Spain votes on 29 November. The PSOE has closed the gap to 3.9 points, but the PP and Vox together reach a majority in 99 per cent of our simulations.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Spain votes on Sunday 29 November, in an election Pedro Sánchez called on 5 October after Congress rejected his housing decrees. The polls published at the start of November all put the PP first:
- SocioMétrica (1 November): PP 32.7, PSOE 26.6, Vox 19.1
- Sigma Dos (30 October): PP 31.1, PSOE 24.6, Vox 19.3, Sumar 7.1
- EM-Analytics (30 October): PP 31.5, PSOE 25.8, Vox 19.2
- NC Report (29 October): PP 33.0, PSOE 25.6, Vox 19.3
- Sondaxe (28 October): PP 29.2, PSOE 26.9, Vox 19.2
The state-run CIS is the exception. Its October barometer had the PSOE on 34 and the PP on 22.2.
Our projection
Our average has the PP on 31.0 per cent, 3.9 points ahead of the PSOE; a month ago the gap was 6.1. On those figures the PP wins 132 of the 350 seats, the PSOE 112 and Vox 67. ERC and Sumar win 8 each, EH Bildu 7 and Junts 6.
No party comes close to the 176 needed to govern alone. The PP and Vox together have 199, and reach a majority in 99 per cent of our 5,000 simulations. Vox is up 6.6 points on the 2023 election.
The campaign
The PSOE had been gaining through October. Several newspapers linked a pause in that recovery to the train crash in the province of Toledo and the resignation that followed. The polls since then are too few to say whether it lasts.
The left is also split. Podemos is standing apart from Sumar's broad front almost everywhere and is backing ERC in Catalonia. In a system of 52 provinces, many of them small, a split vote costs seats.
Read the full projection, province by province.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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