How far behind is too far?
Pick how far the second party trails and how long is left. We look up every one of 901 elections in ten countries and count how many came back.
25 of 170 · Every country
The odds of a comeback, 1 month out runners-up by how far behind, every country
2–4 pts
4–6 pts
6–8 pts
8–10 pts
10–14 pts
14–20 pts
20+ pts
2% of runners-up 5.0 points or more behind finished first (11 of 583).
Today's races the second party in each of our averages, against every election we hold
United Kingdom (latest possible date)
Reform UK trails Labour by 5.9 with 1017 days to go
Canada
The Conservatives trail the Liberals by 16.3 with 1078 days to go
Australia (latest possible date)
One Nation trails Labor by 0.6 with 565 days to go
Germany (latest possible date)
The CDU/CSU trails the AfD by 7.0 with 874 days to go
Spain
The PSOE trails the PP by 3.9 with 27 days to go
Italy (latest possible date)
The PD trails FdI by 7.4 with 415 days to go
Netherlands
The PVV trails PRO by 6.2 with 1290 days to go
Poland (latest possible date)
PiS trails KO by 10.7 with 374 days to go
Every runner-up that far behind 1 month out 170 cases; comebacks first
US Pennsylvania Senate 2024
Republican
5.0 points behind → 48.8% ✓ finished first
Canada federal election 1993
Liberal
5.0 points behind → 41.3% ✓ finished first
US Indiana governor 2016
Republican
4.8 points behind → 51.4% ✓ finished first
US Maine Senate 2020
Republican
4.3 points behind → 51.0% ✓ finished first
US North Carolina Senate 2020
Republican
5.7 points behind → 48.7% ✓ finished first
US Missouri governor 2016
Republican
5.7 points behind → 51.1% ✓ finished first
US Virginia Senate 2006
Democrat
4.3 points behind → 49.6% ✓ finished first
UK general election 1951
Labour
5.8 points behind → 49.4% ✓ finished first
US Florida governor 2018
Republican
4.0 points behind → 49.6% ✓ finished first
UK general election 1970
Conservatives
4.0 points behind → 46.2% ✓ finished first
US Wisconsin Senate 2016
Republican
6.1 points behind → 50.2% ✓ finished first
US Virginia governor 2021
Republican
3.9 points behind → 51.0% ✓ finished first
US New Mexico president 2004
George W. Bush (Republican)
3.9 points behind → 49.8% ✓ finished first
US Colorado Senate 2010
Democrat
3.8 points behind → 48.0% ✓ finished first
Australia federal election 2025
Labor
3.5 points behind → 34.6% ✓ finished first
US Indiana Senate 2016
Republican
3.5 points behind → 52.1% ✓ finished first
US Kentucky governor 2015
Republican
3.5 points behind → 52.5% ✓ finished first
US Pennsylvania president 2016
Donald J. Trump (Republican)
6.6 points behind → 48.6% ✓ finished first
US Indiana president 2008
Barack Obama (Democrat)
3.4 points behind → 50.0% ✓ finished first
US Wisconsin president 2016
Donald J. Trump (Republican)
6.8 points behind → 47.2% ✓ finished first
US Iowa Senate 2020
Republican
3.1 points behind → 51.7% ✓ finished first
US South Dakota governor 2018
Republican
3.0 points behind → 51.0% ✓ finished first
US Minnesota governor 2006
Republican
3.0 points behind → 46.7% ✓ finished first
US Alaska Senate 2004
Republican
3.0 points behind → 48.6% ✓ finished first
The biggest comebacks from 1 month out
Republican −13.2 Republican −8.4 Donald J. Trump (Republican) −8.3 Donald J. Trump (Republican) −6.8 Donald J. Trump (Republican) −6.6 Republican −6.1 Labour −5.8 Republican −5.7 Republican −5.7 Liberal −5.0How this works
For every election we hold polls for, we take each party's poll average at fixed points before polling day (two weeks, a month, two months, and so on to three years) and its gap to the party leading that average. Only the leader and the runner-up count: a comeback means the second party overtaking the first. A party "finished first" if it won the most votes, which is not always office: Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016 won the popular vote. "That far behind" means within two points either side of the figure you chose.
The data: Great Britain 1950–2024 (Mark Pack's PollBase; February 1974 only, as the two 1974 elections share a year); Australia, Canada, France (first round), Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain from our own poll archive; US Senate, governor and presidential races state by state since 2000; the US national vote since 1952 (before 2000, Gallup's June poll only). Past comebacks are not a forecast: our forecast for each country already allows for how much polls move this far out.