Elabe, 16 October 2026

Elabe has Marine Le Pen ahead of Édouard Philippe by 16 points, 32.5% to 16.5%. Since its previous poll (28 August 2026): Raphaël Glucksmann +4 (11.5 → 15.5), Marine Le Pen −1.5 (34 → 32.5), Jean-Luc Mélenchon +1 (14 → 15).

Fieldwork	14 October 2026 – 16 October 2026
Published	17 October 2026
For	BFMTV et La Tribune Dimanche
Sample	1,553
Method	Online
Release	release
In our average	Yes: it is this pollster's latest

Elabe report (https://elabe.fr/presidentielle-2027-octobre/). Round-one line-up (Tondelier, Glucksmann, Philippe, Villepin, Retailleau, Le Pen, Zemmour) left out: shares add up to 323. Round-one line-up (Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen, Zemmour) left out: unknown candidate Natacha POLONY

Every poll published in France must file a notice with the Commission des sondages setting out its sample, dates, question wording and weighting.

H1: Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Glucksmann, Philippe, Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen, Zemmour

	%
Marine Le Pen	32.5
Édouard Philippe	16.5
Raphaël Glucksmann	15.5
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	15
Bruno Retailleau	7
Éric Zemmour	3.5
Marine Tondelier	3
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	2.5
Dominique de Villepin	2
Fabien Roussel	1.5
Nathalie Arthaud	1

H2: Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Glucksmann, Attal, Villepin, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen, Zemmour

	%
Marine Le Pen	33.5
Raphaël Glucksmann	16.5
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	16
Gabriel Attal	10.5
Bruno Retailleau	9.5
Éric Zemmour	3.5
Dominique de Villepin	3
Marine Tondelier	2.5
Fabien Roussel	2
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	2
Nathalie Arthaud	1

H3: Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Lisnard, Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen, Zemmour

	%
Marine Le Pen	31.5
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	15.5
Édouard Philippe	15.5
Raphaël Glucksmann	15
Bruno Retailleau	6.5
David Lisnard	5.5
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	3
Éric Zemmour	3
Marine Tondelier	2.5
Fabien Roussel	1.5
Nathalie Arthaud	0.5

H4: Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Ruffin, Glucksmann, Attal, Retailleau, Lisnard, Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen, Zemmour

	%
Marine Le Pen	31
Raphaël Glucksmann	16.5
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	16
Gabriel Attal	9.5
Bruno Retailleau	9
David Lisnard	6.5
Éric Zemmour	3.5
François Ruffin	3
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	2.5
Fabien Roussel	1.5
Nathalie Arthaud	1

H5: Arthaud, Roussel, Mélenchon, Tondelier, Glucksmann, Attal, Philippe, Retailleau, Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen, Zemmour

	%
Marine Le Pen	32.5
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	15.5
Raphaël Glucksmann	15.5
Édouard Philippe	13.5
Bruno Retailleau	7.5
Gabriel Attal	4.5
Éric Zemmour	3.5
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	3
Marine Tondelier	2.5
Fabien Roussel	1.5
Nathalie Arthaud	0.5

Against the other polls

Against the median of the 2 other polls with fieldwork ending within a week of it: Édouard Philippe 16.5% against 12.5%; Raphaël Glucksmann 15.5% against 12.3%.

Elabe's previous poll, 28 August 2026 →